NABOR® Economic Summit Experts Discuss Migration and Regulatory Patterns


NAPLES, FL – More than 300 REALTORS®, real estate professionals and local leaders interested in the economic health of Collier County and its effects on the local real estate market have attended, in person or virtually, the Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR®) ninth annual economic summit, “A View from the Top”, Tuesday September 7, 2021, at the Hilton Naples. Three leading economists provided qualitative insight into factors affecting the economy and shared their analysis of the influencers affecting home growth and selling activity in the near future.

The data-filled hybrid event began with a welcome message from NABOR® President Corey McCloskey, followed by remarks from event sponsor BJ Cottrell, who is the Managing Partner of the FIRPTA Group. Long-time Summit moderator Jeff Lytle set the tone for the day by assuring attendees they would hear answers to questions about the impact of the pandemic on the economy and whether it would continue to influence the market. housing.

The first to take the stage was Dr. Brad O’Connor, chief economist of Florida Realtors® and head of its industry data and analysis department. After giving a comparative overview of Florida and local real estate activity, Dr O’Connor revealed that the data shows that the luxury home market in Florida has improved more than other price segments over the course of of the last year. He then referred to data from the United States Postal Service (USPS) which showed New York had the highest number of residents who moved their permanent address to Florida in 2020. USPS data also revealed that the new ones residents came mainly from cities and townships like Manhattan. , Chicago and Boston.

Dr. O’Connor’s presentation included a historical perspective on price data. “Prices haven’t gone down for 10 years in Florida. But, while the median closing price for single-family homes appears to have leveled off in recent months, condominium prices have continued to rise.

Dr O’Connor added that “if all the homes currently forborne in Florida were on the market, we would have eight months of inventory. He was quick to assure the public that the current home default situation does not have the same qualities as what happened 10 years ago due to tighter lending rules.

Presenting virtually, Dr Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS®, announced that the trend of “working from home” will survive the pandemic and predicted that it will also continue to have a great influence on the world. place where people choose to buy a home in the years to come.

Because America is experiencing a housing shortage, Dr. Yun pointed out that rents have risen 8 percent in the past year. He also predicts that rents may continue to rise as house prices are also expected to continue to rise due to our inability to meet demand. In fact, he said, “A year ago house prices were 20% lower, so some buyers are seeing their prices go down today. Dr. Yun also revealed that for these future buyers, the rental payment history will be used as a factor in qualifying for a mortgage.

Dr. Yun predicts that home prices will continue to rise 5 to 10 percent in Florida, and possibly up to 20 percent in the Naples area.

Last to present at the Summit was Dr. Elliot Eisenberg, a national economist and acclaimed speaker who was the former senior economist of the National Association of Home Builders. Dr Eisenberg, whose presentation style injects humor into an often mundane topic, made it clear that “the growth of the above trend will continue until next year.” He showed several charts that identified the activity of consumer behavior during the pandemic, including how retail sales grew when everyone was in quarantine, and how the service industry is expected to overtake retail consumption as the average. preferred to spend money now that consumers are less and less shy. Their houses.

Dr Eisenberg said: “Under normal conditions, when you come out of a recession, supply and demand increase together. But not now. ”That’s because demand has skyrocketed as people hunger to return to pre-pandemic consumer behavior, but the influential grip of the pandemic has caused all to stop. production – both for the retail and service sectors – and production cannot keep up.

Dr Eisenberg said the stock market has provided an annual return of 10%, on average, over the past 10 years, but predicts that the average return could drop to around 5% per year over the next 10 years. Of importance to REAL ESTATE AGENTS, he said: “Household balance sheets are spectacular. We wanna spend and consume and do, it’s just that we can’t get people to do [goods] and service [our needs]. However, when the [pandemic] the recession started, we were forced to stay at home and it created forced savings. As a result, this forced saving has saved many people $ 25,000, which is why we have seen an increase in the number of first-time buyers in 2021. “

In conclusion, Dr Eisenberg said he does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates until the end of 2022. However, he warned that we need to keep an eye on housing because “if rents keep going up , that will cause inflation numbers to rise and the Fed may be forced to raise rates before it wants to.

The Economic Summit is a collaborative effort of the NABOR® Board of Directors, the Media Relations Committee and the Economic Summit Working Group under the leadership of Rick Fioretti, Chairman of the Economic Summit Committee.

NABOR® would like to thank its event sponsor The FIRPTA Group, technology sponsor Supra, program sponsor Stuart Kaye Homes, media sponsor SWFL Home Inspections, reception sponsor DR Horton, as well as table sponsors: Gulfshore Insurance, Law Offices of Sam Saad III, Honc Industries, Old Republic Exchange, The National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals (NAHREP), Women’s Council of REALTORS® and Keep Collier Beautiful.

NABOR® is located at 1455 Pine Ridge Road in Naples. For more information on the Economic Summit, contact Marcia Albert at (239) 597-1666.

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